The Kremlin is using uncertainty following the ouster of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, and the potential loss of Russia’s military toehold in Syria, to accuse the United States of sowing instability in the country.
On Dec. 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaled that the end of the Assad regime would push Russia to “make certain adjustments to Russia’s military presence in Syria.”
Lavrov said the continued deployment of Russian forces and the future of its bases “could be the subject of negotiations with the new Syrian leadership.”
Particularly of concern to Moscow are the fates of its Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim air base located on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. The naval base established by the Soviet Union during the cold war, and the air base in 2015 as a strategic command post, both served as Russia’s military hubs in the Middle East.
Amid this backdrop, Russian intelligence is pushing conspiracy theories that the U.S. and allies are planning attacks on those facilities and otherwise seeking to destabilize the country.
On Dec. 28, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, accused U.S. and British intelligence agencies of “working out plans to stage a series of terrorist attacks on the Russian military facilities in Syria.”
Those plans, the SVR claimed, without evidence, would involve the use of Islamic State, or IS, militants.
Russia has long propagated the false narrative that the U.S. sought the ouster of Assad to destabilize the Middle East and control its oil resources.
Despite Russia’s claim, the U.S. has worked for years to eradicate the IS threat, including with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, in Syria’s northeast.
The U.S. and SDF defeated IS in its final holdout, Baghuz, near Syria’s Iraqi border, in March 2019. That year, U.S. forces killed IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi during a raid in northwestern Syria.
The Kurds oversee prisons housing thousands of IS fighters and their families.
Russian forces, by contrast, regularly targeted armed groups who were fighting IS, and did not prioritize fighting IS terrorists during Moscow’s intervention in Syria.
On Dec. 19, the U.S. Defense Department announced an additional 1,100 U.S. personnel had been deployed to Syria, bringing the total to 2,000 U.S. troops, to help stabilize the situation in the post-Assad era.
At the same time, the United States Central Command, CENTCOM, has announced multiple airstrikes against IS targets to prevent the terrorist group from reestablishing foothold in the country.
One U.S. airstrike on Dec. 19 killed IS leader Abu Yusif and other IS operatives “in an area formerly controlled by the Syrian regime and Russians.”
“As stated before, the United States — working with allies and partners in the region — will not allow ISIS to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute,” CENTCOM Commander, General Michael Erik Kurilla said in a Dec. 20 statement.
“ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria. We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria,” Kurilla said.
With Assad gone, there are signs Russia is doubtful about its ability to maintain military presence in Syria.
In recent weeks, Russian cargo planes reportedly carrying military equipment have flown from Syria to eastern Libya, much of which is under the control of Khalifa Haftar, described by France 24 as “Russia’s man” in the country.
Russia also has reportedly shifted military assets to bases in Mali and Sudan, where Moscow maintains a presence of its African Corps — formerly Wagner — troops.
Despite efforts to find alternatives, experts say Russia’s potential loss of its bases in Syria could seriously dampen Russia’s ability to project power in the Middle East and throughout Africa.
On Dec. 30, Al Jazeera reported that Syria’s new government had set up checkpoints around Hmeimim air base. Syrian security forces alleged Russia was harboring Assad loyalists at the facility.
The rebel fighters who ousted Assad and many locals view Russian troops as occupiers, and they want Moscow to withdraw its military presence, Al Jazeera reported.
That report described Hmeimim as a “thorn” in the hearts of the Syrian rebels who had recaptured the country earlier that month, citing the destruction Russian airstrikes had subjected them to up until Assad’s last days in power.
As in Syria, Russia previously accused the U.S. and U.K. of supporting Islamic State – Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K, in Afghanistan, despite longtime U.S. efforts to eradicate ISIS-K and its leadership there.
That allegation fits into the broader conspiracy theory repeatedly spread by Russia and Iran that the U.S. created Islamic State to destabilize the Middle East and serve the foreign policy goals of the U.S. and Israel.
Throughout the decade of the civil war, Russia framed its support for Assad and military presence in Syria, including the deployment of long-range bombers to Hmeimim air base, as a stabilizing force in the country.
Contrary to that narrative, Russia indiscriminately attacked civilian targets, particularly hospitals, and allegedly killed tens of thousands of people throughout the course of the Syrian civil war.
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